Thunder Bay

2yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 52

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Maiden · 1f 80y

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength28%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.2

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-15	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	9th	5th	+4	5.2
2026-09-03	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-08-19	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	7th	0	3.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength71%

Delivery trend -11.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/08/2026	7th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33
03/09/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	67%	+0.30
15/09/2026	9th	20/1	0%	11%	+0.11