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2

Lu's Redemption

5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 86

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

86%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gulfstream 29/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 76 · 1m110y Fm 125 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 76 par29/03C8OR 76C8 @ Gulfstream 11/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 78 · 1m70y Fas 123 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 78 parC7 @ Mountaineer 08/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 82 par8/06C7OR 82C8 @ Mountaineer 21/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 81 · 7f Fm 120 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 81 parC6 @ Mountaineer 12/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 83 · 7f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 83 par12/07C6OR 83C6 @ Mountaineer 05/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 83 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 83 parC5 @ Mountaineer 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 7f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 86 par30/08C5OR 86C8 @ Mountaineer 08/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 84 · 7f Gd 124 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 84 parC6 @ Mountaineer 16/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 87 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 87 par16/09C6OR 87projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Mountaineer?1st0th+1
2026-09-08Mountaineer?1st2nd−1
2026-08-30Mountaineer?3rd1st+2
2026-08-05Mountaineer?2nd1st+1
2026-07-12Mountaineer?2nd1st+1
2026-06-21Mountaineer?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0321/0630/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/03/20268th12/137%0%-0.37
11/04/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
08/06/20267th5/174%33%-0.40
21/06/20262nd3/184%89%+0.05
12/07/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
05/08/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17
30/08/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08
08/09/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
16/09/20261st4/696%100%+0.04