No Napping
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 74
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-03-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 09/03/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 20% | -0.75 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |