3
Overly Dramatic
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 80
Mountaineer · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-07-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 04/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 12/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |