IvyArcIvyArc
7

Verbal Geyser

5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 77

Mountaineer · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Mountaineer 21/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 87 · 1m 123 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 87 par21/10C7OR 87C8 @ Turfway Park 20/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 76 · 1m 121 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 76 parC8 @ Turfway Park 08/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 75 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark08/01/2026 · OR 75 par8/01C8OR 75C8 @ Turfway Park 22/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 81 · 1m110y 120 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 81 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 67 · 6f 123 · below its mark08/06/2026 · OR 67 par8/06C8OR 67C8 @ Mountaineer 21/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 7f Fm 120 · below its mark21/06/2026 · OR 73 parC6 @ Mountaineer 12/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 73 · 7f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 73 par12/07C6OR 73C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 28/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 1m70y 123 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Mountaineer 30/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 77 · 7f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 77 par30/08C5OR 77projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Mountaineer?2nd0th+2
2026-07-28Presque Isle Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-07-12Mountaineer?3rd2nd+1
2026-06-21Mountaineer?4th5th−1
2026-06-08Presque Isle Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-01-22Turfway Park?10th11th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1022/0112/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/10/20257th5/287%14%-0.73
20/12/202511th11/271%9%-0.62
08/01/20264th25/10%73%+0.73
22/01/202610th8/158%18%-0.40
08/06/20262nd15/890%75%-0.15
21/06/20264th5/174%67%-0.07
12/07/20263rd5/174%60%-0.14
28/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
30/08/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00