1
Lumenique
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 68
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |