2
Mesa's Spunky Girl
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 64
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-07-19 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Charles Town | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 13/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/06/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 19/09/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |