6
Party Queen
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 49
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength13%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 12/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 24/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |