7
Somethingtosay
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 58
Mountaineer · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-06-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-05-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |