7
Baby Dog
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 53
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength60%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/07/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 19/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |