1
Califragilistic
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 59
Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength68%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-08-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-07-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |