2

It's Only Money

9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 39

Mountaineer · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Charles Town 22/06/2024 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 43 · 4f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2024 · OR 43 par22/06C5OR 43C5 @ Mountaineer 03/07/2024 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 45 · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/07/2024 · OR 45 parC5 @ Mountaineer 08/08/2024 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 59 · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2024 · OR 59 par8/08C5OR 59C5 @ Mountaineer 25/09/2024 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 60 · 5f110y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2024 · OR 60 parC8 @ Charles Town 02/11/2024 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 53 · 6f110y Fas 122 · below its mark02/11/2024 · OR 53 par2/11C8OR 53C5 @ Mountaineer 25/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 47 · 5f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 47 parC6 @ Mountaineer 12/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 41 · 6f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/10/2025 · OR 41 par12/10C6OR 41C8 @ Mountaineer 05/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 37 · 5f110y Fas 126 · below its mark05/11/2025 · OR 37 parC8 @ Mountaineer 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 39 · 5f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 39 par31/08C8OR 39projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Mountaineer?3rd3rd0
2025-11-05Mountaineer?5th5th0
2025-10-12Mountaineer?6th4th+2
2025-08-25Mountaineer?6th3rd+3
2024-11-02Charles Town?7th7th0
2024-09-25Mountaineer?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0625/0912/1031/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength85%

Delivery trend +1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/06/20246th40/10%17%+0.17
03/07/20243rd12/137%60%+0.23
08/08/20245th12/137%20%-0.17
25/09/20246th14/126%0%-0.26
02/11/20247th33/10%0%0.00
25/08/20256th25/10%0%0.00
12/10/20256th25/10%0%0.00
05/11/20255th20/10%0%0.00
31/08/20263rd16/116%50%+0.34