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Limerick Leader

9yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 110

Newton Abbot · Celebrating Devon Women In Business Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 1f 170y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

One of several success stories for his yard this season. Well ridden to defeat Depalma at Bangor prior to defying a penalty at Sedgefield (3¼m). Made a bold bid for hat-trick when ¾-length second at Kelso (2¾m) latest. Dangerous back up in trip, especially if given rope on the front end.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newton Abbot 21/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 98 · 2m4f216y Gd 151 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 98 par21/084OR 984 @ Sedgefield 04/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 98 · 2m3f65y Gd 157 · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 98 par5 @ Southwell 09/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 98 · 3m60y Goo 167 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 98 par9/065OR 985 @ Newton Abbot 23/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 100 · 2m4f216y Goo 163 · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 100 par4 @ Newton Abbot 13/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 100 · 2m4f216y Goo 163 · below its mark13/07/2026 · OR 100 par13/074OR 1005 @ Newton Abbot 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 98 · 3m1f170y Goo 164 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 98 par4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 96 · 3m30y Gd 154 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 96 par4/094OR 964 @ Sedgefield 09/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 96 · 3m2f59y Goo 158 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 96 par4 @ Kelso 16/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 100 · 2m5f133y Goo 167 · below its mark16/09/2026 · OR 100 par16/094OR 100projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Kelso42nd3rd−1
2026-09-09Sedgefield41st2nd−1
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee41st2nd−1
2026-08-22Newton Abbot54th6th−2
2026-07-13Newton Abbot43rd4th−1
2026-06-23Newton Abbot53rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0823/064/0916/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 3100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 3.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/20252nd3/184%83%-0.01
04/09/20252nd9/488%80%-0.08
09/06/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
23/06/20263rd11/1094%50%-0.44
13/07/20263rd13/891%33%-0.58
22/08/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
04/09/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
09/09/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
16/09/20262nd11/486%67%-0.19