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Muskerry Rock

7yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 120

Newton Abbot · Celebrating Devon Women In Business Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 1f 170y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

92%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Narrowly denied in 2 handicap hurdles before scoring readily in a C&D chase on third start for Dan Skelton. Didn't look 100% on final run for the yard last month. Will need to get back on the up to make a winning start for shrewd connections, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength5%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 13/12/2024 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 2m5f50y Yie 16613/12C?C8 @ Limerick 29/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 104 · 2m6f120y Yie 165 · below its mark29/12/2024 · OR 104 parBHA86 @ Clonmel 27/02/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 86 · 3m Hvy 154 · below its mark27/02/2025 · OR 86 par27/0286OR 86C8 @ Limerick 29/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 103 · 2m6f120y Sft 168 · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 103 parBHA94 @ Tramore 20/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 94 · 2m5f160y Goo 161 · below its mark20/04/2026 · OR 94 par20/0494OR 94C8 @ Wexford 07/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 94 · 2m7f Goo 163 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 94 par5 @ Fontwell 10/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 100 · 3m1f166y Goo 168 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 100 par10/065OR 1005 @ Market Rasen 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 100 · 2m7f16y Gd 168 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 100 par4 @ Newton Abbot 13/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 115 · 3m1f170y Goo 166 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 115 par13/074OR 115projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Worcester4−1
2026-07-13Newton Abbot41st2nd−1
2026-06-19Market Rasen52nd4th−2
2026-06-10Fontwell52nd4th−2
2026-05-07Wexford?1st6th−5
2026-04-20TramoreBHA948th16th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1229/1210/0613/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 350% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 3. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/12/20246th22/10%55%+0.55
29/12/20243rd10/147%82%+0.34
27/02/202510th6/168%40%-0.28
29/12/202511th15/261%23%-0.37
20/04/20268th22/10%42%+0.42
07/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
10/06/20262nd8/1397%75%-0.22
19/06/20262nd15/890%89%-0.01
13/07/20261st5/493%100%+0.07