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4

Matiwo

4yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 119

Newton Abbot · Jodie Standing's Point-To-Point Recruits Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 167y

#2

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Newbury juvenile hurdle winner who stands out on his fourth in the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton in February. Let down by his jumping at Compiegne subsequently but has his sights firmly lowered for this return to action. The one to beat for connections who won this corresponding race last year.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chepstow 11/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 2m11y Gd 15411/1043 @ Newbury 14/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m69y GS 154 · HIGHER CLASS14/0131 @ Kempton 21/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 119 · 2m Goo 147 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 119 par21/021OR 119BHA119 @ Compiegne 01/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 119 · 2m1f196y Hvy 154 · below its mark01/04/2026 · OR 119 par1/04119OR 119projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-01CompiegneBHA1198th18th−8
2026-02-21Kempton14th0th+3
2026-01-14Newbury31st0th+1
2025-12-13Cheltenham2+2
2025-10-11Chepstow43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1014/0121/021/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength43%

Delivery trend -30.7% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20253rd40/10%78%+0.78
14/01/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
21/02/20264th18/15%73%+0.67
01/04/20268th5/174%30%-0.44