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Pappano

5yo Gelding · 11-0

Newton Abbot · Jodie Standing's Point-To-Point Recruits Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 167y

#6

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Head-strong sort. Has stood little racing since his useful days on the Flat in 2024. Bombed out twice for Willie Mullins (including on hurdle debut in the Triumph) last year and was well beaten in first-time tongue strap here (2¾m) on return/stable debut. Plenty to prove.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength77%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 01/04/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m4f51y Std 1141/0441 @ Chester 08/05/2024 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 1m4f63y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ Goodwood 25/05/2024 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 1m3f44y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2024 · OR 83 par25/051OR 831 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2024 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 90 · 1m6f34y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2024 · OR 90 par2 @ Haydock 06/07/2024 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 90 · 1m6f1y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2024 · OR 90 par6/072OR 903 @ Southwell 04/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 90 · 1m6f21y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2024 · OR 90 par1 @ Ascot 04/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 93 · 1m6f34y Hvy 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/10/2024 · OR 93 par4/101OR 932 @ Newcastle 28/06/2025 · Pos 20th of 20 · OR 96 · 2m56y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/06/2025 · OR 96 par4 @ Newton Abbot 18/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 2m5f122y Gd 15818/094projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newton Abbot45th5th0
2025-06-28Newcastle220th18th+2
2025-03-14Cheltenham1+4
2024-10-04Ascot13rd-1th+3
2024-09-04Southwell31st0th+1
2024-07-06Haydock25th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0419/064/1018/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength24%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/04/20241st1/195%100%+0.05
08/05/20246th25/10%0%0.00
25/05/20245th16/116%33%+0.18
19/06/20248th66/10%30%+0.30
06/07/20245th25/10%67%+0.67
04/09/20241st2/189%100%+0.11
04/10/20243rd22/10%50%+0.50
28/06/202520th12/137%0%-0.37
18/09/20265th20/10%33%+0.33