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4

Juggernaut

7yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 104

Newton Abbot · Shelley Coles - Setting the Pace at 60 Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 75y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/5

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

77%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to his best in first-time blinkers when landing 5-runner C&D chase with extra to spare earlier this month. Could well follow up despite being just out of the weights, with promising 5-lb claimer again in the saddle (2 wins and a second from 3 starts aboard him).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Plumpton 20/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 105 · 2m3f166y Gd 150 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 105 par20/103OR 1054 @ Wincanton 20/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 104 · 1m7f149y Gd 160 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 104 par4 @ Taunton 08/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 103 · 2m12y Gd 161 · below its mark08/01/2026 · OR 103 par8/014OR 1035 @ Fontwell 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 101 · 2m1f162y GS 164 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 101 par5 @ Stratford 19/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 100 · 3m2f83y Gd 168 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 100 par19/045OR 1005 @ Fontwell 24/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 100 · 3m1f166y Goo 168 · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 100 par4 @ Newton Abbot 19/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 100 · 3m2f105y Goo 158 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 100 par19/074OR 1005 @ Stratford 25/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 98 · 2m2f148y GF 161 · below its mark25/08/2026 · OR 98 par4 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 97 · 2m75y Gd 156 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 97 par7/094OR 97projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Newton Abbot41st2nd−1
2026-08-25Stratford53rd5th−2
2026-07-19Newton Abbot44th5th−1
2026-05-24Fontwell53rd5th−2
2026-04-19Stratford52nd4th−2
2026-03-27Fontwell52nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1027/0319/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20253rd2/189%50%-0.39
20/11/20254th17/255%57%+0.02
08/01/20263rd6/594%50%-0.44
27/03/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
19/04/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
24/05/20263rd9/488%60%-0.28
19/07/20264th11/486%40%-0.46
25/08/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
07/09/20261st10/382%100%+0.18