4
Berry Edge
8yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 87
Newton Abbot · Final Furlong Before 'I Do' Selling Handicap Hurdle · 2m 167y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Worcester | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Wetherby | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Wetherby | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Catterick | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Sedgefield | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Sedgefield | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/05/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/06/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 13/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 17/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |