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Cogital

11yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 91

Newton Abbot · Final Furlong Before 'I Do' Selling Handicap Hurdle · 2m 167y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who capitalised on a much-reduced mark when making it 2-2 over C&D in June, beating a next-time-out winner in the process. This is probably a better race, despite the fact it's a selling handicap, and he arrives following a poor run on the Flat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hereford 11/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 101 · 2m53y Goo 164 · below its mark11/11/2025 · OR 101 par11/115OR 1015 @ Ludlow 03/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 95 · 1m7f169y Goo 158 · below its mark03/12/2025 · OR 95 par4 @ Chepstow 27/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 91 · 2m16y GS 144 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 91 par27/124OR 915 @ Chepstow 26/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 2m16y Goo 158 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 86 par6 @ Wolverhampton 10/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 55 · 1m4f51y Std 135 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 55 par10/046OR 556 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 54 · 1m6f21y Std 156 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 54 par5 @ Newton Abbot 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 87 · 2m167y Gd 155 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 87 par3/065OR 876 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 52 · 2m Goo 122 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m3f209y Gd 135 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 52 par21/086OR 52projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Ffos Las68th9th−1
2026-06-30Ffos Las63rd4th−1
2026-06-03Newton Abbot51st1st0
2026-04-30Southwell65th6th−1
2026-04-10Wolverhampton69th10th−1
2026-03-26Chepstow52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1126/033/0621/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength85%

Delivery trend -5.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/11/20257th66/10%45%+0.45
03/12/20254th66/10%63%+0.63
27/12/202512th80/10%8%+0.08
26/03/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46
10/04/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
30/04/20265th10/147%60%+0.13
03/06/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
30/06/20263rd11/271%67%-0.04
21/08/20268th16/116%22%+0.06