Lightning Flash
6yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 106
Newton Abbot · Final Furlong Before 'I Do' Selling Handicap Hurdle · 2m 167y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
34%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Doncaster | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-12-17 | Ludlow | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-24 | Ludlow | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2025-11-01 | Wetherby | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-10-11 | Chepstow | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 36% | -0.27 |
| 14/03/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 25/04/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 57% | -0.37 |
| 17/12/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 38% | -0.44 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |