3
Ellerton
6yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 106
Newton Abbot · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f 122y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Newton Abbot | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-27 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Taunton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2024 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 26/12/2024 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 18/01/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 54% | +0.12 |
| 31/03/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/11/2025 | 6th | 5/4 | 93% | 29% | -0.65 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |