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Kilnew Supreme

5yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 106

Newton Abbot · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f 122y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Expensive purchase following second in a point. Filled the same position in a bumper/couple of hurdles last season, doing plenty right under a typically positive ride when 3 lengths behind a fairly useful one at Taunton in April. Sets the standard and may improve switched to a longer trip/handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength7%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Wincanton 08/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m7f50y Goo 156 · HIGHER CLASS8/1124 @ Wincanton 23/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m7f50y Gd 16023/0344 @ Taunton 22/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m3f1y Gd 15922/044projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-22Taunton42nd2nd0
2026-03-23Wincanton42nd2nd0
2025-11-08Wincanton22nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1123/0322/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength75%

Delivery trend -5.0% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/11/20252nd85/4089%86%-0.03
23/03/20262nd13/891%91%-0.01
22/04/20262nd4/696%83%-0.13