IvyArcIvyArc
5

Ask Peter

7yo Mare · 10-4 · OR 81

Newton Abbot · Par Inn Bulpin Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 3m 2f 105y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hasn't kicked on since going close in a 2m handicap here in June, however, is on a reasonable mark if revitalised by this marked step up in trip (stayed well on the Flat). She looks an uncomplicated ride for her relatively inexperienced jockey, too (having only second ride under Rules).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wincanton 04/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 87 · 2m5f82y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/12/2025 · OR 87 par4/124OR 875 @ Taunton 03/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 87 · 2m3f1y Hvy 150 · beat its mark03/02/2026 · OR 87 par5 @ Taunton 12/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 87 · 2m3f1y Hvy 155 · below its mark12/02/2026 · OR 87 par12/025OR 875 @ Taunton 09/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 85 · 2m104y Gd 157 · below its mark09/04/2026 · OR 85 par5 @ Newton Abbot 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 83 · 2m167y Gd 162 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 83 par12/065OR 835 @ Newton Abbot 03/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 84 · 2m2f110y Goo 147 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Newton Abbot 19/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 83 · 2m167y Goo 162 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 83 par19/074OR 835 @ Newton Abbot 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 83 · 2m167y Goo 155 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 83 par4 @ Newton Abbot 18/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 81 · 2m167y Gd 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 81 par18/094OR 81projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newton Abbot46th5th+1
2026-08-27Newton Abbot53rd3rd0
2026-07-19Newton Abbot46th5th+1
2026-07-03Newton Abbot54th4th0
2026-06-12Newton Abbot52nd2nd0
2026-04-09Taunton54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/129/0419/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength56%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/12/20256th8/158%44%-0.13
03/02/20263rd8/158%78%+0.20
12/02/20267th11/271%33%-0.38
09/04/20264th7/282%57%-0.24
12/06/20262nd3/184%80%-0.04
03/07/20264th3/184%40%-0.44
19/07/20266th14/126%29%+0.02
27/08/20263rd11/486%50%-0.36
18/09/20266th28/10%17%+0.17