Bits Ballou
5yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 78
Newton Abbot · Par Inn Bulpin Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 3m 2f 105y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Stratford | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Ludlow | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Ludlow | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 14/04/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |