Final Entry
5yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 97
Newton Abbot · Par Inn Bulpin Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 3m 2f 105y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Worcester | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Worcester | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Taunton | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-09 | Taunton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2024 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 08/11/2024 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 24/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 09/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 22/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |