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Pooroldmackley

7yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 83

Newton Abbot · Par Inn Bulpin Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 3m 2f 105y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

55%

Place Prob

42%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful over fences here last year. Back on his latest winning mark and has looked in top form recently. Again finished with running left under an overly patient ride when 2½-length second at Plumpton 8 days ago. Capable of going one better if things fall right under usual amateur rider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ludlow 11/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 84 · 2m5f55y Gd 153 · below its mark11/05/2025 · OR 84 par11/055OR 844 @ Newton Abbot 04/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 84 · 2m4f216y Goo 149 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2025 · OR 84 par5 @ Worcester 07/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 2m4f Goo 147 · below its mark07/07/2025 · OR 83 par7/075OR 835 @ Worcester 31/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 83 · 2m7f Gd 156 · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 83 par5 @ Newton Abbot 19/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 84 · 3m1f170y Goo 158 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 84 par19/095OR 845 @ Stratford 28/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 87 · 2m6f7y Goo 155 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 87 par5 @ Worcester 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 79 · 2m4f Gd 147 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 79 par6/065OR 795 @ Worcester 10/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 83 · 2m7f Goo 151 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 83 par5 @ Plumpton 20/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 83 · 3m217y Goo 159 · beat its mark20/09/2026 · OR 83 par20/095OR 83projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-20Plumpton52nd2nd0
2026-07-10Worcester54th4th0
2026-06-06Worcester54th4th0
2026-03-28Stratford57th7th0
2026-02-27Doncaster50
2025-12-21Fakenham50

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0531/086/0620/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20253rd15/890%50%-0.40
04/06/20254th7/282%40%-0.42
07/07/20255th15/261%33%-0.27
31/08/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
19/09/20253rd10/147%67%+0.19
28/03/20267th11/142%25%-0.17
06/06/20264th12/137%63%+0.26
10/07/20264th18/15%63%+0.57
20/09/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06