3
Red Hot Spark
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 77
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 15/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |