2
Runaway Breeze
7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 75
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |