1
Knicks Factor
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 75
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength82%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |