3
Serene Waters
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 72
Presque Isle Downs · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 22/02/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 70% | -0.24 |
| 28/10/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 03/07/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |