5
Cocktail Kisses
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 87
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
87%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 89% | -0.03 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 90% | +0.11 |
| 01/04/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 44% | -0.47 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/10 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |
| 23/06/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |