5
Miss Watermelon
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 79
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -11.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 45% | -0.37 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 4/5 | 96% | 17% | -0.79 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 22% | -0.46 |