4
Trophy Husband
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 69
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
65%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 29/07/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |