1
He's A Mess
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 107
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 20/09/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 20/10/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 19/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |