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5

King Mendelssohn

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 93

Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Monmouth Park 11/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark11/07/2025 · OR 86 par11/07C8OR 86C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 30/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 81 · 1m Fas 123 · below its mark30/07/2025 · OR 81 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 19/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 88 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2025 · OR 88 par19/08C5OR 88C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 30/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 87 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 87 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 16/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 89 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 89 par16/10C5OR 89C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 19/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 93 · 6f 120 · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 93 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 91 · 5f110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 91 par20/05C5OR 91C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 89 · 6f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 92 · 1m70y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 92 par7/07C5OR 92projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-07Presque Isle Downs?1st0th+1
2026-06-09Presque Isle Downs?1st0th+1
2026-05-20Presque Isle Downs?2nd1st+1
2025-12-19Tampa Bay Downs?1st3rd−2
2025-10-16Presque Isle Downs?3rd2nd+1
2025-09-30Presque Isle Downs?3rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0730/0920/057/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength89%

Delivery trend +1.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/07/20254th10/147%50%+0.03
30/07/20252nd3/184%75%-0.09
19/08/20252nd3/184%75%-0.09
30/09/20253rd6/594%75%-0.19
16/10/20253rd13/891%60%-0.31
19/12/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
20/05/20262nd8/1196%80%-0.16
09/06/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
07/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10