Shadow Factor
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 103
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 29/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 23/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |