6
Twilight Dancer
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 98
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 18/01/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |