1
Epic Summer
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 77
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 20% | -0.72 |
| 29/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |