Ipledthefifth

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 75

Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-31	Presque Isle Downs	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-11	Presque Isle Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-04	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-07-15	Presque Isle Downs	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-06-29	Presque Isle Downs	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-06-15	Presque Isle Downs	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▼

Strength59%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/10/2025	4th	25/1	0%	40%	+0.40
20/05/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	67%	+0.67
15/06/2026	6th	10/1	47%	29%	-0.19
29/06/2026	5th	10/1	47%	33%	-0.14
15/07/2026	2nd	11/10	94%	80%	-0.14
04/08/2026	1st	7/4	91%	100%	+0.09
11/08/2026	5th	10/1	47%	43%	-0.05
31/08/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	86%	+0.09