4
Party At The Beach
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 70
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength60%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 03/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |