4
Lillesand
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 68
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 02/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 24/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 30% | +0.14 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |