5

Quite Continental

5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 55

Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 29/03/2024 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 77 · 1m1f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/03/2024 · OR 77 par29/03C6OR 77C9 @ Saratoga 24/07/2024 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 69 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark24/07/2024 · OR 69 parC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 14/09/2024 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 70 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark14/09/2024 · OR 70 par14/09C9OR 70C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 04/10/2024 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2024 · OR 78 parC7 @ Saratoga 28/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m Fm 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/08/2025 · OR 68 par28/08C7OR 68C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 17/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m70y Fas 123 · below its mark17/09/2025 · OR 67 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 04/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m Gd 119 · below its mark04/01/2026 · OR 63 par4/01C8OR 63C8 @ Presque Isle Downs 20/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 59 · 5f110y 123 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 59 parC8 @ Presque Isle Downs 24/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 62 · 1m70y 123 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 62 par24/08C8OR 62projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-24Presque Isle Downs?10th10th0
2026-07-20Presque Isle Downs?7th7th0
2026-01-04Tampa Bay Downs?8th8th0
2025-09-17Presque Isle Downs?8th8th0
2025-08-28Saratoga?8th7th+1
2024-10-04Belmont At The Big A?10th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/034/104/0124/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/03/20245th10/147%0%-0.47
24/07/20242nd3/184%89%+0.05
14/09/20241st11/893%100%+0.07
04/10/202410th8/158%0%-0.58
28/08/20258th40/10%13%+0.13
17/09/20258th4/179%13%-0.66
04/01/20268th9/153%13%-0.40
20/07/20267th14/126%25%-0.01
24/08/202610th20/10%10%+0.10