10
Starcry
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 55
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-11-26 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2024-11-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-10-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-10-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength4%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2024 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 70% | -0.21 |
| 20/08/2024 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 09/09/2024 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 02/10/2024 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 16/10/2024 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 04/11/2024 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 26/11/2024 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |