3
Too Much Fun
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 69
Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 03/01/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/07/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 11% | -0.47 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |