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2

Direct Approach

4yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 97

Roscommon · Athleague Maiden Hurdle · 1m 7f 135y

#2

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quirky sort who is a fair maiden on Flat. Best effort over hurdles when third in a Kilbeggan maiden in July. Ran up to his best when beaten 5 lengths on the level at Dundalk last time. Could go close reverted to hurdling in first-time cheekpieces (previously responded to blinkers).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 23/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 13423/08C8C8 @ Navan 06/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR - · 1m2f10y Gd 134C8 @ Gowran Park 20/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 1m1f100y Hvy 13420/09C8C8 @ Punchestown 31/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 2m105y Yie 154C8 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 2m1f165y Gd 15414/07C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 2m2f200y Gd 153C8 @ Roscommon 04/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 102 · 1m7f110y Yie 155 · below its mark04/08/2026 · OR 102 par4/08C8OR 102BHA100 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 100 · 2m1f40y Goo 165 · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 100 parBHA69 @ Dundalk 18/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 69 · 1m4f Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 69 par18/0969OR 69projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18DundalkBHA693rd2nd+1
2026-08-26BellewstownBHA1009th11th−2
2026-08-04Roscommon?5th5th0
2026-07-24Kilbeggan?3rd3rd0
2026-07-14Downpatrick?6th6th0
2025-12-31Punchestown?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0831/124/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20257th25/10%33%+0.33
06/09/20259th50/10%53%+0.53
20/09/20252nd14/126%93%+0.67
31/12/20259th20/10%33%+0.33
14/07/20266th17/255%38%-0.18
24/07/20263rd33/10%86%+0.86
04/08/20265th12/137%67%+0.30
26/08/20269th12/137%43%+0.06
18/09/20263rd33/10%78%+0.78