14
Another Blunder
5yo Mare · 10-6 · OR 75
Roscommon · Gary's Gardening Services Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 1m 7f 135y
#15
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 8.8)
Highest class: BHA75
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | BHA75 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cork | BHA77 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1956% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 11/07/2025 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 14/05/2026 | 12th | 125/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 28/05/2026 | 13th | 250/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 200/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 17/07/2026 | 8th | 300/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/08/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |