17
Arctic Piper
7yo Mare · 11-4 · OR 87
Roscommon · Gary's Gardening Services Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 1m 7f 135y
#19
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA90 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | BHA92 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | BHA92 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-08 | Clonmel | BHA94 | 0 | ||
| 2025-12-26 | Limerick | BHA97 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Punchestown | BHA99 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 196% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength54%
Delivery trend +7.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 18th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2024 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 13/09/2024 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 03/10/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 28/01/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 10/05/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 31% | +0.15 |
| 20/11/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 13/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 07/09/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |