17

Arctic Piper

7yo Mare · 11-4 · OR 87

Roscommon · Gary's Gardening Services Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 1m 7f 135y

#19

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#19

★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden who hasn't made much impact back over hurdles last 2 starts for current yard, eleventh of 20 in handicap at Galway 3 weeks ago. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Galway 03/08/2024 · Pos 5th of 19 · OR - · 2m Yie 1653/08C?C8 @ Ballinrobe 13/09/2024 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f207y Gd 153C8 @ Clonmel 03/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 2m176y Goo 1593/10C8C8 @ Limerick 28/01/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 2m Hvy 161BHA103 @ Cork 10/05/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 103 · 2m4f Gd 161 · below its mark10/05/2025 · OR 103 par10/05103OR 103BHA100 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 100 · 2m4f Yie 156 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 100 parBHA97 @ Limerick 26/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 97 · 2m4f Hvy 143 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 97 par26/1297OR 97BHA92 @ Tramore 13/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 92 · 2m4f100y Gd 164 · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 92 parBHA90 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 90 · 2m160y Yie 150 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 90 par7/0990OR 90projClass-projected finish: 14th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07GalwayBHA9011th11th0
2026-08-13TramoreBHA929th9th0
2026-07-22WexfordBHA920
2026-01-08ClonmelBHA940
2025-12-26LimerickBHA978th8th0
2025-12-11PunchestownBHA990

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0828/0126/127/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 196% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength54%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 18th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/20245th5/174%78%+0.04
13/09/20249th8/158%43%-0.15
03/10/20245th10/147%56%+0.08
28/01/20254th15/261%70%+0.09
10/05/202510th16/116%31%+0.15
20/11/20257th14/126%45%+0.19
26/12/20258th28/10%36%+0.36
13/08/20269th40/10%47%+0.47
07/09/202611th66/10%47%+0.47