16
Avandra
6yo Mare · 10-3 · OR 72
Roscommon · Gary's Gardening Services Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 1m 7f 135y
#13
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA73 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | BHA73 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA73 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Cork | BHA73 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | BHA74 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | BHA72 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 1911% of fieldRange 9-19 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength8%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 17th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 04/03/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 31% | +0.05 |
| 16/05/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 46% | -0.25 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 09/06/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 82% | +0.77 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 77% | +0.03 |
| 26/08/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.01 |