8
Our Girl Ellie
6yo Mare · 11-9 · OR 92
Roscommon · Gary's Gardening Services Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 1m 7f 135y
#6
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Thurles | BHA94 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Killarney | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Ballinrobe | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-22 | Ballinrobe | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-10 | Sligo | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1950% of fieldRange 18-19 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2024 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/11/2024 | 6th | 200/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 10/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |
| 22/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 12/09/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 62% | +0.19 |
| 05/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 30/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 14/05/2026 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 41% | -0.22 |