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Patty O'Farrell

8yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 95

Roscommon · Gary's Gardening Services Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 1m 7f 135y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

66%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved at least as good as ever when runner-up in mares handicap at Listowel in June. However, she isn't the easiest to catch right and was in the progress of running poorly when falling 2 out here the following month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA85 @ Naas 03/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 85 · 2m Goo 153 · below its mark03/04/2025 · OR 85 par3/0485OR 85BHA89 @ Tipperary 14/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 89 · 2m190y Goo 159 · below its mark14/05/2025 · OR 89 parBHA89 @ Listowel 02/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 89 · 2m Goo 146 · beat its mark02/06/2025 · OR 89 par2/0689OR 89BHA97 @ Roscommon 07/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 97 · 1m7f204y Gd 165 · below its mark07/07/2025 · OR 97 parBHA100 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 100 · 2m Sft 162 · below its mark15/12/2025 · OR 100 par15/12100OR 100BHA98 @ Down Royal 20/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 98 · 2m1f33y Sft 154 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 98 parBHA97 @ Naas 04/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 97 · 2m Sft 166 · below its mark04/03/2026 · OR 97 par4/0397OR 97BHA96 @ Bellewstown 18/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 96 · 2m1f30y Yie 143 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 96 parBHA93 @ Listowel 01/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 93 · 2m Yie 152 · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 93 par1/0693OR 93projClass-projected finish: 8th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06RoscommonBHA950
2026-06-01ListowelBHA932nd2nd0
2026-04-18BellewstownBHA969th9th0
2026-03-04NaasBHA977th7th0
2026-01-20Down RoyalBHA986th6th0
2025-12-15NaasBHA10012th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/047/074/031/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1967% of fieldRange 7-19 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength25%

Delivery trend -8.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 19. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/04/20252nd28/10%94%+0.94
14/05/20255th7/163%73%+0.10
02/06/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
07/07/20253rd11/271%86%+0.15
15/12/202512th22/10%27%+0.27
20/01/20266th18/15%50%+0.45
04/03/20267th16/116%63%+0.47
18/04/20269th8/158%11%-0.47
01/06/20262nd9/276%89%+0.13